With the Russia/Belarus failure to reach an agreement on a new gas price for Minsk, Thursday... Lukashenko, known for his hard-line towards restricting
media and information flows, & violating the rights of the Belarusians; Begins Jan 1, 2007,
imposing a blockade on all Russian media...
(Minsk sources reveal on Friday)...Белоруссия намерена объявить блокаду российских СМИ?
HT-Ivan Lenin Image: LJ user nomad-3px This seems very complicated...But the first question:
Does Minsk Stand A Chance In Gas War With Gazprom? Belarus' failure to honor its commitments under the oil agreement of 1995 has cost Russia more than $35 billion over the past 10 years...
This is more than Belarus' annual GDP. Gazprom's losses from Minsk's failure to abide by the package agreement of 2002 (under which it would buy gas at domestic Russian prices in exchange for the set up of a joint gas shipment venture) amounted to some $10 billion...
Russian-Belarusian deadlockThe unilateral interpretation of bilateral agreements sooner or later leads to a crisis in relations and to a deadlock. The first victim of this crisis has been trust between the two countries' leaderships...But see what is at stake here for Putin:
The Captain explains:
Belarus Doubles Down"The Russians have the ball in their court now, and they have to decide whether losing 20% of their revenue this year and possibly losing all influence in Belarus is worth the price hikes and the shakedown racket that Putin wants to implement."
Fuel War: Failure to reach CompromiseGazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov confirms the concession to Belarus:
"We have agreed to the most comfortable conditions for Belarus," Kupriyanov said on December 27. "We want to obtain 50 percent [of Beltranshaz], not control over it, and we are [offering] a price that is even higher than the market one."
Of course, Putin's current decision toward unification of Russia:
Putin: Union state of Russia
and Belarus long overdueAnd this for: Belarus- Lukashenka Eyes Union With Ukraine -Snippets according to
RIA Novosti:
"If there is no progress in talks on gas or any other source of conflict, Lukashenko may face a full-scale Russian-Belarusian crisis on January 1..."A cut-off of fuel in the dead of winter"
Part of the Belarusian opposition may then go over to Lukashenko's side, and he may even get political support from Central Europe."
blog posts on Belarus at The Truth Laid Bear beltwaytrafficjam | joscafe
basilsblog | conservativecat~~~~~~
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