Monday

Oil Observations: US Technology Intro

Today's oil concerns are an important topic... But oil does not belong in tomorrow's future as a reliable energy source. No policy in the history of our Nation has dedicated itself to preparation of a World tomorrow; as has our current Administration...It was our Nation's first Administration to pass laws for funding 'the largest alternative energy research of its kind' in the world... Of its roots: National Energy Policy Act of 2005

Right now, with aggressive assistance of hundreds of top scientists, we seek to implement these new findings, on a daily basis… I'll be posting some of the newest innovations and applied Sciences in the days to come...Many, haven't received Media attention, amidst the Global Warming programs... They're positive, and uplifting!
-Filed under: New Technologies.

This is a dinosaur in the archives of 'World Energy Source' (below) And also the greatest contributor to rapid decline of Earth's magnetic field.
Iranian Oil: Less likely to reveal the seriousness of the decline

-Oil Observations in Summary:
-Source- S.L.O. Pub-© 06
Conventional oil peaks in 2006, conventional oil plus gas liquids plateau until 2010. From 2010 onward production of conventional oil plus liquids slowly declines. By 2015 it is 75 million barrels a day...
-We won't go as far as 2020...
(expected to drop to 33 etc; not covering a sharp increase in population; and new growth will be a positively impacted by the United State's alternative energy sources.)

2005:
-Middle East Gulf......20 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 estimate).
-Russia.....................9.2 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 projection).
-USA (lower 48).......2.8 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 projection).
-China.......................2.57 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Mexico.....................2.37 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Norway....................1.82 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Nigeria....................2.14 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).

These 7 major oil producers deliver about 43 million barrels of 'cheap' crude oil a day. Around half the oil that the world burns up every day comes from these 7 high volume producers alone.

2010:
-Middle East Gulf......20 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 projection).
-Russia.....................5.5 million barrels day(ASPO end 2005 estimate).
-USA (lower 48).......3.6 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 estimate).
-China......................2.57 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Mexico.....................3.04 million barrels day(ASPO 2004 projection).
-Norway....................2.62 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Nigeria....................2.34 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).

-These 7 major oil producers deliver around 39 million barrels of 'cheap' crude oil a day. Around half the oil that the world burns up every day comes from these 7 high volume producers alone.


During a 1968 prediction, using the Hubbert curve method to show the estimated global peak of conventional oil reserves (and point slowly in decline) most astute investigators have estimated it to have been somewhere around 2005...
The point when half the original reserves are used up is the peak of the life of the resource, and it is irreversibly downhill from that point. New fields brought into production after peak oil are by definition small, and cannot make up for the huge amount of reserves already used up over the years.
For instance: Russia passed its peak of production in the 80's- if produced at the current high rate, will last only to about 2012. Norway, the world’s third largest oil volume exporter has also peaked, and at current rates will exhaust reserves by about 2014...
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The size of the Saudi reserves and how much has been produced to date, is not readily available... Some have said that it is regarded as Saudi Arabia's state secret. Estimates of the reserves in the huge Saudi fields must be drawn from historical data going back to before 1979, when US oil companies worked on those fields. Estimates of the amount drawn off from Saudi fields must come from a variety of sources, including the number of tankers leaving Saudi terminals, and the amount of oil those tankers can carry...

Saudi Arabia is particularly important. It has the world's largest oil field, and is the single highest producer of oil in the world. The Hubbert method applied to Saudi Arabia implies that its fields originally contained a total of about 180 Giga barrels, and there are roughly 70 Gigabarrels left. The implication is that the Saudi reserves have passed the mid point, and will soon decline.

In Hubbert's day, prior to aggressive pressurization of fields with water or natural gas, decline would be gradual. Artificially re-pressurizing oil fields masks the gradual drop in pressure and gradual decline of the field. As a result of these techniques, decline rates in the largest Saudi fields have been held to 2% overall. It seems more likely than not that the decline slope in the pressurized massive Saudi fields will not follow the Hubbert decline curve - the decline may well be steep, not gradual. Time will tell...
-Source- S.L.O. Pub-© 06

Stay tuned! More later...
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