Sunday

Oil-Peak Revolution: Alternative Sources

Iran will NEVER admit that their pumps
are seriously declining to produce exports

-Read below, where oil-reserves stand... But read first, the great news about what has been silently in the background!
-New Successful Technologies-
-In the most elaborate and efficient, multi-billion dollar program of its kind, within the National Energy Policy Act of 2005 (signed by our President) pools with the finest in technological research, as it encompasses energy efficiency and conservation, and promotes alternative and renewable energy sources. Designed to reduce our dependence on foreign sources of energy, it increases domestic production, modernizes the electricity grid, and encourages the expansion of safely controlled nuclear energy...
-Which remain the most crucial problem facing our world, today.-
I have always felt that the key problem of Earth changes stems from the tremendous pull of oil from the Earth. This important lubrication is not only important for balance in Earth's magnetics and integrity, is has brought us to..."Earth changes". Today, America and France are implementing new technologies that will revolutionarily change the need for fossil-fuel. We have so much to look forward to...


-What seems odd to me is the fact that there has not been a governmental program towards energy conservation in over 10 years, yet the progress of the new programs (to date) would have answered many questions in the new "Gore" disaster film. The truth is: We do not need "fear" we need technologies! And, right now, with aggressive assistance of hundreds of top scientists, we are ALL on the way! National Energy Policy Act of 2005!
New "so-so" field: Iran -06
Iran to halt fuel import and impose rationing
-The new decision comes as Iran has been enjoying windfall oil revenues and in September 2005 the conservative parliament agreed to spend more on petrol imports.
-Analysts have said Iran could prove highly vulnerable to sanctions on its petrol imports, if the United Nations takes tough action over its controversial nuclear program.

-UPDATE:The above link represents the direction that Iran "wanted"...But due to inability to meet the Iranian Parliament’s dead-line to upgrade their transportation systems (in order to ration) and cut-back oil exports (see first link above) they are not prepared for rationing...(World Tribune) and all other media, are posting this one: Oil-rich Iran faces gasoline rationing
-Iran is going to be "super unpopular" if they seriously oppress selected parts of the growth and ability of their country, without alternative.

What to expect

During a 1968 prediction, using the Hubbert curve method to show the estimated global peak of conventional oil reserves (and point slowly in decline) most astute investigators have estimated it to have been somewhere around 2005...
The point when half the original reserves are used up is the peak of the life of the resource, and it is irreversibly downhill from that point. New fields brought into production after peak oil are by definition small, and cannot make up for the huge amount of reserves already used up over the years.
For instance: Russia passed its peak of production in the 80's- if produced at the current high rate, will last only to about 2012. Norway, the world’s third largest oil volume exporter has also peaked, and at current rates will exhaust reserves by about 2014...
~~~~~~
The size of the Saudi reserves and how much has been produced to date, is not readily available... Some have said that it is regarded as Saudi Arabia's state secret. Estimates of the reserves in the huge Saudi fields must be drawn from historical data going back to before 1979, when US oil companies worked on those fields. Estimates of the amount drawn off from Saudi fields must come from a variety of sources, including the number of tankers leaving Saudi terminals, and the amount of oil those tankers can carry...

Saudi Arabia is particularly important. It has the world's largest oil field, and is the single highest producer of oil in the world. The Hubbert method applied to Saudi Arabia implies that its fields originally contained a total of about 180 Giga barrels, and there are roughly 70 Gigabarrels left. The implication is that the Saudi reserves have passed the mid point, and will soon decline.

In Hubbert's day, prior to aggressive pressurization of fields with water or natural gas, decline would be gradual. Artificially re-pressurizing oil fields masks the gradual drop in pressure and gradual decline of the field. As a result of these techniques, decline rates in the largest Saudi fields have been held to 2% overall. It seems more likely than not that the decline slope in the pressurized massive Saudi fields will not follow the Hubbert decline curve - the decline may well be steep, not gradual. Time will tell...
Source- S.L.O. Pub-© 06
~~~~~~
-Summary- ASPO: By the way, estimated production profiles for conventional, i.e. 'cheap' oil (liquids and unconventional oil excluded)

-SUMMARY: Conventional oil peaks in 2006, conventional oil plus gas liquids plateau until 2010. From 2010 onward production of conventional oil plus liquids slowly declines. By 2015 it is 75 million barrels a day...
-We won't go as far as 2020 (expected to drop to 33 etc; not covering a sharp increase in population)...

2005:
-Middle East Gulf......20 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 estimate).
-Russia.....................9.2 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 projection).
-USA (lower 48).......2.8 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 projection).
-China.......................2.57 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Mexico.....................2.37 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Norway....................1.82 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Nigeria....................2.14 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).

These 7 major oil producers deliver about 43 million barrels of 'cheap' crude oil a day. Around half the oil that the world burns up every day comes from these 7 high volume producers alone.

2010:
-Middle East Gulf......20 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 projection).
-Russia.....................5.5 million barrels day(ASPO end 2005 estimate).
-USA (lower 48).......3.6 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 estimate).
-China......................2.57 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Mexico.....................3.04 million barrels day(ASPO 2004 projection).
-Norway....................2.62 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
-Nigeria....................2.34 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).

-These 7 major oil producers deliver around 39 million barrels of 'cheap' crude oil a day. Around half the oil that the world burns up every day comes from these 7 high volume producers alone.


-More later on the new energy packages.

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